Thursday, April 12, 2018, 16:14 – A strong Colorado low forecast to develop later this week brings with it the risk of severe storms across parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Some storms are even possible as far north as the Upper Midwest, as the low makes its trek across the eastern half of the country, blasting the northern Plains and Great Lakes with possible blizzard conditions at the same time.
The system may also produce flooding rain from eastern Texas to western Kentucky, and a few areas across Louisiana and Arkansas through Saturday.
Take a look at what we know so far, and what’s still uncertain, below.
- Watching for severe weather starting on Friday across the Arklatex/southern Plains continuing east through Sunday
- Thunderstorm risk stretches up to Upper Midwest/Great Lakes as well, though these are not expected to be severe
- Severe risk continues into Saturday; timing and placement of storms is still highly uncertain
- Forecast will be further refined as the system develops
- Have a severe weather plan ready and be ready to take shelter in a secure area when severe weather strikes
Friday: Few tornadoes possible
- An area of severe storms is likely for Friday afternoon into the overnight
- The most severe storms will be centered from Iowa and part of the middle Missouri Valley southward across the Arklatex region, and lower Mississippi Valley
- All severe hazards are possible with very large hail and a few tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong, being the primary threats
- Some thunderstorms, possibly with severe impacts, are possible into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes ahead of the heavy snow
Saturday: Threat shifts east
- Severe storms are again possible on Saturday as the energy moves east
- Strong to severe storms are expected across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast regions Saturday
- Timing differences between models increase after Friday
- Greatest risk for the strongest storms are likely from central Alabama south to the central Gulf Coast, as southwest flow aloft carries thicker cloud debris across the Tennessee Valley region
- A gradual decrease in storm intensity/severe risk should diminish later in the evening, as convection reaches the southern Appalachians and Florida Panhandle
- The same storm system is also expected to produce heavy rainfall from eastern Texas to western Kentucky, with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of rain through early Saturday. A few areas across Louisiana and Arkansas could get over 3 inches based on the latest forecasts.
Sunday: Damaging wind threat for Florida to Virginia
Current models indiciate that storms won’t be as strong Sunday, but there is a 15% chance of damaging winds from an area extending from parts of Virginia south to Florida, as the system moves offshore.